It's already looking like Wall Street's bonus season is going to be weak

Investment banks have had a tough year.

Deals have been falling apart. The industry’s global revenues reached $31.4 billion in the first half of the year, down 25% from a year ago, according to Dealogic.

Most banks have reported significantly lower revenues in the first quarter. Macquarie Group and Goldman Sachs have been firing traders, while the head of Deutsche Bank sent out an ominous note on restructuring efforts.

What does that mean for bankers? A shrinking bonus pool, of course.

Compensation consultant Johnson Associates just broke out its latest estimates for how things will shake out. Corporate dealmakers could see bonuses fall 5% to 15% below those in 2015. Rewards to fixed-income sales and trading workers may drop 10% to 15%.

It’s even worse for equity underwriting, where bonuses are expected to drop between 15% and 25%.

Those declines stem from lower completed activity across the industry, significant drop in equity underwriting, and moderate dip in advisory and debt underwriting, Johnson Associates said.

The investment banking sector is expected to see the worst contraction in bonuses among Wall Street firms.

Even so, if you lump bonuses and compensation together, that number as a share of revenue and profit for the banking industry is still expected to beat that of alternative investment firms (think hedge funds and private equity):

The report highlighted that the UK’s decision to exit Europe could pump up costs and add revenue pressure, especially in the U.K. and Europe. This echoes Business Insider’s previous reporting on how bank earnings are expected to suffer as Brexit plays out. Financial firms are also relocating their staffs from London.

While companies are reducing headcount, they’re focusing on “tech efficiencies.” Indeed, many of these big beasts are already betting big on technology, ranging from blockchain to partnerships with high-speed trading firms.

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