The global economy might not be booming, but it’s going to have to get a lot worse before we start talking about a recession.
In a note to clients on Thursday, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett writes that while global earnings have declined and manufacturing activity around the world has slowed this year, we’re a long way from levels that would get us thinking about a recession.
So far, global earnings are down 9.6% peak-to-trough, but in Hartnett’s view a 15% decline is needed for a “true recession-shock” to earnings.
Global manufacturing PMIs are even further away from recession-type levels.
This year global PMI — or purchasing managers index — is down 3.4% over the prior year, but still hanging in around the 50-52 range, indicating expansion in global manufacturing and nowhere near the 15% decline Hartnett thinks would more seriously indicate a recession.
And so things might not be good, but a recession? Not that close.
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