Of all the possible fears out there, one has increased the most for investors in the past month — geopolitical risk.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly fund survey, a geopolitical crisis is the biggest tail risk for 18% of investors, up from 13% last month.
The survey was carried out between November 6 and 13, which is before the Paris attacks on the night of November 14, and covered 201 investors managing a total of $US576 billion.
A Chinese recession and emerging market debt crisis still win out as bigger fears overall, with 32% and 23% respectively, but with Russia’s military involvement in Syria, a migrant crisis and the rise of ISIS, it’s not hard to see why investors are concerned.
A so-called tail risk is the risk of something unexpectedly bad happening.
Here’s the chart:
Meanwhile, China’s economy is gradually winning back investors’ confidence after a rocky year in which the country’s shares were hit by two crashes.
The fund managers upgraded their view of Chinese growth, with more investors seeing it grow by more than 6%. More than half of those surveyed saw growth above 6%, up from only 28% last month.
And this despite the risk of a recession:
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