But there several top Wall Street strategists who’d argue we’re actually closer to the beginning of the bull market than the end. These are the folks who believe we’ve been in the early stages of a longer-term, secular bull market.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch chartist Stephen Suttmeier visited this thesis in a note to clients on Sunday:
The secular bull market breakout from April 2013 projects up to 2330-2425 using the standard bar chart and the width of the 2000-2013 secular trading range. This is a 50% to 55% gain from the breakout point using 1575-1550 as the breakout point. The prior trading range breakouts from 1950 and 1980 (next page) projected 60% and 50% from their respective breakout points. The S&P 500 achieved the 1950s breakout target in July 1954, or 46 months after the breakout and achieved the 1980s breakout target in January 1985, or 55 months after the breakout. If the S&P 500 follows this secular road map, the index would test 2330-2425 between February and November 2017.
Getting to 2,425 means a 13.8% return from current levels in about two years.
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