Bank of America Merrill Lynch is out with a note giving long-run projections for key economic variables.
The list includes predictions for 20 economic data points, ranging from GDP to inflation to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, for each year through 2020, and then for 2021-2025.
Some of BAML’s interesting long-term predictions for 2021-2025 include a 3.75% benchmark interest rate, a 4.5% yield on a 10-year Treasury note, and 4.2% nominal GDP.
BAML also sees the Fed keeping interest rates low through 2016. BAML expects a 1.5% interest rate in 2016, below where all but three FOMC participants projected interest rates to be at year-end, according to the Fed’s latest Dot Plot.
BAML also sees the Fed overshooting its inflation target once the economy fully recovers, with core inflation running a bit above 2% later this decade.
Here’s a full table of BAML’s predictions: