From Nomura, a roundup of the completion of back-to-school shopping season:The back-to-school shopping season is coming to a close and the transition to fall business was soft in the third week of September. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs weekly chain store index fell 1.2% w-o-w, offsetting the gain from the previous week. The Johnson Redbook retail sales index dropped to flat month-to-date (+4.5% y-o-y) and fell behind the target of +0.1% m-o-m (4.6% y-o-y). Discount stores continue to outperform department stores, but sales at discount stores cooled in the most recent week. With autumn weather advancing, fall apparel sales have picked up. Gasoline prices dropped six cents in the past week (to $3.60/gallon), but have not fallen as far as might be expected. Gasoline prices and pessimism about the economic outlook remain a drag on consumers. The preliminary September release of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumers showed consumers have a dim outlook of the future. While the assessment of current conditions recovered from abysmally low levels in August, the index of consumer expectations fell to its lowest level since early 1980.
Meanwhile, projections are coming out for the holiday season.
According to WSJ, the firm Shoppertrak sees sales growing at just 3%, down from last year’s 4.1% growth.
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