This is seriously the best news we’ve heard all day.
A week from today is economic Christmas the jobs report, everyone’s favourite economic report.
Here’s a preview from Deutsche Bank:
As we wrote last week, the surge in oil prices has probably overshadowed most of this week’s economic releases with perhaps one exception: the employment report. We are forecasting +250k on nonfarm payrolls (+270K private). This estimate assumes there will be 120k weather workers returning to the payroll; the underlying trend in job growth is closer to 130k per month. Yesterday’s claims report was encouraging but it probably tells us more about how the March labour market is shaping up than what transpired in February: Initial jobless claims fell 22k to 391k for the week ending February 19. This is one week past the employment survey period. If we can sustain a sub-400k reading over the next few weeks—the 4-week moving average did decline 17k to 402k, the lowest reading since July 2008—then job growth should shift to a higher gear. We estimate that a sustained level of 390k on claims would translate into 150k to 175k on nonfarm payrolls. The claims report also hinted at a further drop in unemployment: Continuing claims fell 145k to 3790k, which had the effect of lowering the 4-week moving average down by 35k to 3893k. This pushed the insured rate of unemployment down one-tenth to 3.0%—a new cyclical low. This series is telling us the unemployment rate should decline further. We are looking for a 0.1% decline to 8.9%.