Avatar will have the biggest opening weekend of any December movie says Pali Research’s Rich Greenfield (sub. only).
He thinks the film does over $100 million thanks to its opening on 3,400 3D screens. Here’s his breakdown:
- DWA’s Monsters vs. Aliens and Disney’s UP generated about 45% of their opening weekend attendance from about 2,000 3D screens. Avatar is set to open on 3,400 3D screens domestically including 178 Imax 3D screens, which is likely to drive attendance to be weighted 55%-60% toward 3D (we modelled 57.5%).
- We are assuming 85% sell-out or more on the 178 IMAX screens – with a $13 average ticket price, which is a $3 premium to traditional 3D theatres and a $6 premium to 2D theatres. Equates to a blended opening weekend ticket price of almost $9, with nearly 70% of box office in 3D (including both Imax 3D and traditional 3D).
Yesterday Greenfield gushed, “the honest truth is that nobody in the world has ever seen a movie like Avatar.”
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