Australian new home sales may have seen their cyclical peak

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Australian new home sales increased in June.

According to the HIA, new homes sales rose by 0.5% over the month. Those for detached housing increased by 1.7%, offsetting a 2.9% decline in unit sales.

Detached house sales increased by 3.5% in NSW, 1.5% in Victoria, and 4.2% in Queensland but fell by 2.0% in South Australia and 0.9% in Western Australia.

While sales remain at historical highs, HIA chief economist Harley Dale believes sales may have reached their cyclical peak in April of this year.

“Total sales appear to have peaked for the cycle back in April, but remain at an extremely elevated level. It can consequently be said that new home sales held their head up high throughout 2014/15,” he said.

While new home sales have been running hot over the past two years — largely on the back of those in multi-dwelling complexes — if Dale is correct, it will be worth watching just how steep the slowdown in new home sales will be.

In June building approvals, led by a huge decline in high-rise units, tanked. While one month does not make a trend, given recent restrictions on lending to Australian housing investors and continued price increases in Australian capital cities, the outlook for sales is now the most clouded it has been in at least the past two years.

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