Dwelling prices in all Australian capital cities except Sydney have grown at a slower pace since the start of the current decade to what was seen between January 2000 and February 2007.
According to data published by CoreLogic earlier today, prices in Sydney grew by 78.3% since January 2010, above the 61.1% increase seen from January 2000 to February 2007.
Both mammoth increases, but the performance was the exception to the rule for other Australian capitals, including Melbourne.
Here’s how the other capitals fared in comparison over those periods:
Gain from Jan 2000 to Feb 2007: 95.6%
Gain from Jan 2010 to Feb 2017: 55.1%
Gain from Jan 2000 to Feb 2007: 147.2%
Gain from Jan 2010 to Feb 2017: 6.6%
Gain from Jan 2000 to Feb 2007: 124.4%
Gain from Jan 2010 to Feb 2017: 11.0%
Gain from Jan 2000 to Feb 2007: 199.4%
Gain from Jan 2010 to Feb 2017: -3.3%
Gain from Jan 2000 to Feb 2007: 198.0%
Gain from Jan 2010 to Feb 2017: 3.4%
Gain from Jan 2000 to Feb 2007: 97.3%
Gain from Jan 2010 to Feb 2017: -5.0%
Gain from Jan 2000 to Feb 2007: 133.4%
Gain from Jan 2010 to Feb 2017: 23.8%.
While prices have grown far slower this decade, as seen in the data, that largely reflects that they grew substantially more than Sydney in percentage terms in the period between 2000 to early 2007.
Other factors such as population growth and economic conditions, especially in mining states where prices have gone backwards over the past seven years, have also played a role in the slowdown.
To Cameron Kusher, research analyst at CoreLogic, the data suggests that when it comes to national debate about housing bubbles and affordability constraints, it’s largely isolated to Australia’s southeastern capitals, Sydney and Melbourne.
“Our research reinforces concerns around over-valuations in the housing market, if any, are very much focused within Sydney and Melbourne,” he says. “For the remaining capitals, the reality is that since the beginning of the decade there has been very little value growth.”
And, if house price data so far this month is anything to go by, the divide between those cities and Australia’s other capitals looks set to widen further.
“The debate around housing affordability and overheated housing values is about to step up a notch, with CoreLogic set to report another month of solid capital gains for March,” said Tim Lawless, head of Asia Pacific at CoreLogic.
“The preliminary results over the first 28 days of the month indicate capital city dwelling values are likely to rise by approximately 1.4% over the month, with stronger results being recorded in Melbourne and Sydney.”
These charts from CoreLogic show the decade-to-date comparison for dwelling price growth in each of Australia’s capitals. From a national perspective, prices grew by 98.2% in the noughties compared to 44.9% in the current decade.