There are some big data points scheduled this week domestically — July figures for building approvals, capital expenditure and private sector credit — which will help to provide a gauge on the economy ahead of next week’s Q2 GDP data.
And it’s a busier week of data on the international front to finish the month. The week will close with a flurry of manufacturing PMIs for most major economies, giving markets further pointers on whether global economic growth remains broadly on track.
Friday night’s meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole came and went with little fanfare. Neither US Fed chair Janet Yellen or ECB Mario Draghi made any key changes to their forward guidance.
Despite Draghi’s neutral stance, bullishness in the euro remains apparent as it closed above $US1.19 for the first time since January 2015.
Currency markets remain bearish on the greenback as the US dollar index fell by 0.81, with the AUD closing up at 0.7934.
Global bond markets were little changed and stocks did nothing, with the CBOE volatility index for US stocks falling to its lowest level since August 8.
Key data kicks off on Wednesday with building approvals for July from the ABS, after seasonally adjusted building approvals surged ahead in June.
When smoothed out in trend terms though, the figure was little changed from the previous month and was lower than a year earlier, reflecting the broad slowdown of the construction boom.
Then on Thursday there’s private capital expenditure data for the June quarter. Q1 capex edged higher although the outlook was subdued, but Credit Suisse’s analysis of the August reporting season suggests that Australian companies may be getting ready to spend again.
Also on Thursday there’s private sector credit data for July from the RBA, which is coming off June figures which showed the weakest monthly growth since 2012.
Taken in aggregate with the Ai Group’s August manufacturing data on Friday, the three data releases outlined above will act as useful indicators for Q2 GDP figures scheduled for Wednesday September 6.
Here’s the schedule of data releases this week in Australia (via ANZ):
Looking abroad, Japan has the July unemployment rate on Tuesday (forecast to remain at 2.8%).
On Wednesday night the US has Q2 GDP data, with the market forecasting annual growth to edge up to 2.8% from 2.6% in Q1.
The Eurozone has business and consumer confidence data on Wednesday, then two key data points on Thursday; preliminary inflation data for August (forecast annual growth is 1.4%) and the July unemployment rate (forecast at 9.1%).
Also on Thursday China has government-released PMI data for August, and later that night Canada releases its Q2 GDP data.
That precedes a wave of PMIs to end the week on Friday, which will serve as a useful guide on the pace of global growth. There’s the non-government Caixin PMIs for China, with August manufacturing data scheduled for the US, UK and Europe.
Also on Friday after Asian markets close the US has August employment data. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to grow by 180,000 in August, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3%.
Here’s the international schedule this week: