AUSTRALIAN DIARY: Everything you need to know about the week ahead for markets

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Wednesday’s CPI data will be the main event domestically this week, with annual headline inflation growth for September currently forecast at 2.0%.

Internationally, markets will be focused on the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, with the ECB set to announce details for the tapering of its bond purchase program.

US stocks and the US dollar rallied on Friday night, after the US Senate passed a budget resolution that clears the way for the Trump administration to enact its tax reform agenda which will include a cut to the company tax rate.

The S&P500 rose by 0.5% to close at another record high, while the US dollar index rose by 0.4% as the greenback posted gains against all the major currencies.

The yield on 10-year US bonds — which move inversely to their price — also rose sharply, adding six basis points to close at 2.38%.

The Australian dollar wasn’t immune to the USD strength, closing the session 0.76% lower at 0.7819 US cents.


CPI data for the September quarter — scheduled for Wednesday at 11:30am AEST — is always highly anticipated, given the close connection between inflation growth and the outlook for interest rates.

Headline inflation for the September quarter is forecast to climb by 0.8%, leaving annual growth at 2.0%.

The headline figures will include the impact from sharp rises in power prices that came into effect on July 1, however Westpac chief economist Bill Evans expects underlying inflationary pressures to remain subdued.

The ABS also has international trade price index data for the September quarter on Thursday, with quarterly producer price inflation (PPI) figures on Friday.

On Thursday evening, RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle is scheduled to give a speech titled “Uncertainty”.

Here’s the schedule of Australian data this week:

Source: ANZ


Internationally, there’s a wave of preliminary October PMI readings on Tuesday, following finalised September data which showed the global growth backdrop looks positive.

On Wednesday the UK has Q3 GDP data and the Bank of Canada will make its October interest rate announcement, with rates expected to stay on hold at 1.0%.

Then on Thursday night the focus will be on ECB President Mario Draghi as he announces details for how the ECB plans to taper its asset purchase program.

The market expectation is for the bank to slow purchases to 40 billion euros a month in January 2018, from the current level of 60 billion euros.

On Friday during Asian trade, Japan will announce September inflation figures.

Then on Friday night after markets close the US has Q3 GDP, with the consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 2.5% in the September quarter.

Full international calendar below:

Source: ANZ

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