If the first two weeks of July were hectic for financial markets, the next looks like it will be a holiday as the economic data calendar quietens down before a splurge of activity arrives in the final week of the month.
With the exception of the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting minutes on Tuesday, the Australian economic calendar is littered with second-tier releases that will do little to shift rate expectations or move financial markets.
Markets are already looking ahead to the release of Q2 CPI data on July 27, an event that many believe will either make or break the case for a further rate cut from the RBA.
Offshore, the events calendar is also quiet.
In what is somewhat of an anomaly, New Zealand will garner plenty of attention with the release of Q2 CPI on Monday along with an updated economic assessment from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday.
“Thursday’s (word-based) update will likely see the Reserve Bank reminding everyone of the June MPS’s [monetary policy statement] signal of further OCR [overnight cash rate] easing – which the much higher than anticipated exchange rate has only reinforced,” say economists at the NAB.
Outside of our Kiwi brethren, there’s little else to generate significant levels of volatility.
“The US reporting season will be a major focus in a light US data week,” says the NAB. “Globally, the IMF releases revised forecasts Tuesday, the ECB meets Thursday, and G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet next Saturday.”
Although each will create talking points, none are likely to influence markets greatly. That can be said of the economic data calendar too with central bank policy the main game when it comes to market volatility at present.
Investors and traders will have plenty to digest on that front the week after next with monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan along with the release of Australia Q2 CPI.
Following last week’s terrorist atrocity in Nice and the the attempted coup on Friday in Turkey security and geopolitical instability are likely to be talking points on the long-term outlook. Donald Trump has been clawing back ground over Hillary Clinton in recent polls, and British policy in a range of areas is taking shape under newly-installed prime minister Theresa May.
The NAB’s excellent diary of all the key data and events for the week ahead is below. And here’s our weekly economics podcast, where this week we are joined by Warren Hogan to discuss the medium-term outlook for the Australian economy.