Global catalysts are again likely to drive moves on domestic markets this week, as investors remain on edge amid rising volatility.
US stocks rallied into the close on Friday night to finish 1.4% higher. The tech-led gain snapped a 6-day losing streak, during which time the S&P500 lost 6.7%.
Bond yields — cited as one of the many factors behind last week’s stock selloff — edged higher, as benchmark 10-year US bond yields closed at 3.167%.
ASX futures markets closed another 50 points lower after a solid session on Friday when Asian markets steadied. The Aussie dollar was little-changed above US71 cents.
Jobs data on Thursday is the highlight on this week’s domestic calendar. Here’s a summary of the key events:
The median employment forecast is for the economy to add another 15,000 jobs in September, after a strong gain in August.
With the unemployment rate expected to hold at 5.3%, ANZ analysts said the result is “unlikely to determine the trend for the AUD in the week.”
Westpac’s forecast is for a 15,000 gain. Risks “lie to the upside” due to rotation effects, as the outgoing group in this month’s sample had a lower jobs/population ratio.
While the outlook for employment remains broadly positive, recent leading indicators paint a slightly murkier picture for the months ahead.
Ahead of Thursday’s jobs print, RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle will make a speech on Wednesday called “The State of the Labour Market.”
Also this week there’s RBA minutes on Tuesday following the central bank’s October rates announcement.
The minutes from the US Fed’s September meeting, when it raised rates by 0.25%, will be released on Wednesday night.
In light of the recent move in US bond yields, markets will assess the minutes for any more clues on the Fed’s outlook.
There’s also a round of inflation updates, with New Zealand Q3 inflation on Tuesday followed by September data for the UK and Europe on Wednesday night.
Italy will present the final draft of its budget to the EU this week, while the European Council is scheduled to hold a Brexit meeting on Wednesday/Thursday night.
And China rounds out the week with Q3 GDP data on Friday.
Here’s this week’s full calendar, via ANZ:
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