The start of a new month will usher in a deluge of key data and events in Australia, culminating in Q2 GDP figures on Wednesday.
And with a number of market-moving releases on the schedule, it’s shaping up as a big week for the Aussie after the currency got sold off heavily on Friday night.
It by 1% to close below US72 cents for the first time since December 2016.
Global trade tensions gave rise to reduced risk appetite, adding to lingering tensions about Australia’s growth outlook which have weighed on the Aussie in recent weeks.
The US and Canada finished the week without a trade deal, while markets continue to assess the prospect of further US sanctions against China and more shakiness in emerging markets.
US stocks were flat on Friday, but ASX futures traders have marked the local index higher on Monday morning, possibly as a result of the steep fall in the Aussie.
To the week ahead:
This week starts off with a bang. Here’s Monday’s data calendar: retail sales, quarterly GDP inputs, Ai Group manufacturing PMIs, ANZ job ads, and monthly house prices from Corelogic.
July retail sales (11:30am AEST) are forecast to rise by 0.3%. Retail data has beaten expectations for three straight months, but headwinds to the sector remain evident.
Quarterly ABS data on company profits and inventories will provide clues ahead of Wednesday’s GDP print, while the house price stats will get plenty of attention as usual (more falls expected in August).
Markets will get the final GDP input on Tuesday with the Q2 current account balance. Then the RBA will take centre stage with its monthly rates announcement.
While rates will almost certainly stay on hold at 1.5%, any tweaks to the accompanying statement could reverberate in markets — particularly if the AUD is still under pressure.
RBA governor Philip Lowe will also give a speech at the central bank’s board dinner on Tuesday night.
And this week’s data highlight will be Q2 GDP on Wednesday (11:30am AEST). The median forecast is for the economy to grow by 0.7% q/q, leaving annual growth at 2.8%.
Capping off a huge week, the ABS has July trade data on Thursday following by monthly housing finance figures on Friday.
Given it’s the start of a new month, markets will get an update on the global growth outlook with a raft of PMIs on the schedule.
The first wave of manufacturing PMIs come out on Monday, with non-government Caixin PMIS for China likely to get some attention in Asian trade.
US manufacturing data comes out on Tuesday because US markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday.
The next wave of services PMIs comes out on Wednesday, along with an interest rate announcement by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday night (rates forecast to stay on hold at 1.5%).
And the US rounds out the week with all-important August jobs data, including average hourly earnings. The US economy is expected to add another 192,000 jobs in August, which will see the unemployment rate fall even lower to 3.8%.
This week’s full calendar (via ANZ) is here: