After a quiet couple of weeks on the data front, there’s a wave of key data releases to kick off the new month.
Data domestically will be headlined by the RBA’s monthly interest rate announcement on Tuesday, and Q2 GDP figures on Wednesday.
Looking abroad, markets will be focused on the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday night.
Global stocks rose again on Friday night, after closing higher for the month of August which made it 10 straight months of gains for the MSCI global stocks index.
Although US employment growth missed estimates, the US dollar index held steady and the greenback rose against the euro.
The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar both outperformed against most major currencies. The AUD made another run towards US80 cents before finding resistance:
A busy week of data starts with key business indicators on Monday from the ABS. Data on inventories and company profits will give a guide as to how Wednesday’s GDP report will print.
Tuesday is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly interest rate announcement. While the RBA is in no hurry to move the benchmark cash rate from 1.5%, the accompanying announcement is always closely watched for any indications of changes in the bank’s economic outlook.
Also on Tuesday the ABS has Australia’s current account data for the June quarter, with the deficit expected to increase further after a higher than expected shortfall in March.
Then on Wednesday Australia’s GDP growth for the June quarter will be released. Annual growth is forecast at 1.8%, slightly up from the 1.7% recorded in the three months to March.
Key data from the ABS continues on Thursday with retail sales for July. Despite headwinds in the industry, June retail sales figures grew at their strongest annual rate since April 2016.
There’s also Australia’s balance of international trade figures for July, with the market forecasting Australia to maintain a surplus of around $850 million after it narrowed sharply in June.
Capping off a huge week of headline data releases, on Friday there’s housing finance data for July from the ABS showing the latest breakdown of owner-occupier and investor lending.
Here’s the full schedule of Australian data releases:
The schedule of key data releases for major global economies isn’t as packed this week, with US markets closed on Monday for a public holiday.
China has non-government Caixin services PMIs on Tuesday, and later that night there’s services PMI data in the UK and Europe.
On Wednesday, the US has international trade figures, and the release of the US Fed’s “Beige Book” — a report compiled eight times a year by a different office of the Fed. It’s released two weeks before the Fed’s next interest rate announcement, and can provide clues to the market on the Fed’s current policy stance.
Also on Wednesday the Bank of Canada has its interest rate announcement, with the market forecasting that rates will stay on hold at 0.75% before another hike in October.
Then on Thursday night at 9.45pm AEST, the European Central Bank will make its interest rate announcement followed by a press conference.
Markets are forecasting that the bank will leave both rates and asset purchases unchanged. The focus will be on the bank’s outlook, particularly for asset purchases and whether ECB committee members will provide details on their intentions to reduce the current level of monetary stimulus.
Canada rounds out the international calendar with August employment figures on Friday. There’s also speeches from committee members of the US Federal Reserve throughout the week.
International calendar below: