It’s a big week for global markets and for the Australian domestic economy.
Traders will be watching the machinations of the ECB and whether it finally moves to adopt its own version of quantitative easing. We’ll know on Thursday night our time. It’s probably the single biggest macro event of the week, even though there will be a greater focus on data such as the HSBC manufacturing PMI on Monday in China and the non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday.
In the meantime, though, there are some very important local catalysts. There’s a full calendar of data, with the TD inflation data and gross company profits out on Monday in Australia.
Net exports, government spending and inventories are out prior to the releases of Q2 GDP on Wednesday morning at 11.30am AEST.
Equally on Tuesday at 2.30pm we see the release of the next instalment in the RBA’s saga of the “period of stability” in Australian interest rates. Once again however their decision is made the day before the GDP is released, so what they say won’t be the final word for the week on domestic interest rates. That will depend on GDP, it’s strength, any revisions and its make up.
The Bloomberg survey of economists released on Friday has a median expectation of 3% growth in GDP for the quarter. (The range of guesses runs from 2.2% to 3.2%).
Offshore, as if the ECB meeting isn’t a big enough event, the Russian belligerence needs to be watched closely in Ukraine and then we have non farm payrolls on Friday in the US.
On the political front both Houses are sitting this week down in Canberra which will keep a focus on the Government’s struggles to get its Budget through the Senate. There is likely to also be some scrutiny of the government’s announcement that Australian troops will be arming the Kurds and that our FA-18’s may join the fray in Iraq. All of this helps the Prime Minister continue to assert his authority in a time when people are seeking signs of certainty and control from the government
On the earnings front there are still a number of companies reporting this week but all the banner names have already released their results.
It’s the last round of the NRL and the first week of finals footy in the AFL so week’s end is going to be all about the footy as we head into the business end of the season. Remember to keep an eye out for the footy tragics on your floor.
For the data buffs here is Westpac’s excellent wrap of all the important developed market data.