Australian capital city home prices are falling at a rate not seen since the GFC

Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images
  • Australian capital city home prices are on track to fall 0.9% in November, the largest decline since November 2008.
  • The pace of price declines in Sydney and Melbourne have accelerated in recent weeks.
  • With property listings elevated and demand weak, it suggests some vendors are willing to accept lower offers in order to secure a sale.

Australian capital city home prices are on track to record to their largest monthly decline in a decade, according to data from CoreLogic.

As seen in the chart below from Macquarie Bank, values are falling across Australia’s largest cities during a period when they’re traditionally strong.

Macquarie Bank

It shows price movements on an annualised monthly basis using data from CoreLogic’s daily series, and has been adjusted to eliminate the influence of seasonal patterns in the housing market.

Right now, values are falling at a faster pace in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, mirroring the nominal declines reported by CoreLogic.

There’s also modest weakness being seen in Adelaide and Brisbane despite flat to slightly higher nominal price outcomes over the past month.

Combined, prices in these five capitals are falling at an annualised monthly pace of around 10% in average weighted terms, accelerating from the declines seen earlier in the year.

With property listings elevated and demand weak, the recent increase in the pace of price declines may reflect that some vendors — particularly those in Sydney and Melbourne — are now willing to accept lower offers in order to secure a sale.

Should recent trends continue in the coming days, it will see prices across Australia’s capitals log the largest decline since the GFC.

“The combined capitals are down 0.9% so far in November which would be the largest monthly fall since December 2008,” says Cameron Kusher, Research Analyst at CoreLogic.

The group’s November Home Value Index will be released on Monday, December 3.

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