Australia looks set to record its largest trade deficit in years

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Aside from retail sales the other major data event for Australia this Thursday is the release of international trade figures for April.

According to Bloomberg the median market forecast is for the nation’s trade deficit to widen to $2.1 billion. Should this eventuate it will mark the largest deficit recorded since November 2012.

Here’s CBA on what to expect.

“Softer commodity prices are weighing on export receipts while a lower AUD has pushed up the price of imported goods. The net result has been a string of trade deficits. That trend will continue over the period ahead and we expect to see a widening in the trade deficit over April. We have pencilled in a deficit of $1.8bn”.

And on the other end of the spectrum, Westpac.

“Westpac is forecasting -A$3.1bn for trade balance, much weaker than the median of -$2.1bn and at the bottom of the range. A $3.1bn deficit would be the largest since Mar 2008. We expect imports to jump 4% in April and exports to fall by 2%, led by weaker iron ore and coal prices as well as weaker coal volumes”.

We’ll find out who’s closer to the pin at 11.30am Sydney time.

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