Australia’s jobs report for June is out today.
After three months of stonking employment gains, coinciding with a clear strengthening in lead labour market indicators earlier in the year, economists are expecting another solid increase in job creation from today’s data.
And, with speculation over the outlook for interest rates next year elevated thanks to optimistic remarks from the RBA at its July monetary policy meeting, this report carries the potential to be even more market-moving than usual.
Here’s the state of play:
- In May, employment jumped by 42,000 in seasonally adjusted terms, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 10,000.
- April’s employment change, previously reported as an increase of 37,400, was revised higher to 46,200.
- It was the eighth consecutive month that an increase in employment had been recorded.
- Full-time employment surged by 52,100 to 8,287,400 while part-time employment fell by 10,100 to 3,865,200.
- Along with a strong gain in March, the three-month increase in employment jumped to 141,100, the fastest pace of hiring since November 2004.
- Over the year, full-time employment rose by 148,000, outpacing an increase in part-time employment of 84,800.
- Courtesy of the strong lift in hiring, the unemployment rate tumbled to 5.5%, the lowest level since February 2013.
- The decline came despite a lift in labour market participation which hit a 10-month high of 64.9%.
- The total number of unemployed workers fell to 711,900, the lowest level since October last year.
- Total hours worked jumped by 1.87%, or 31.1 million hours, mirroring the surge in full-time hiring.
- Today, economists expect another solid increase in employment, although not to the same scale seen in the past three months.
- The median economist forecast is centred around an increase of 15,000. Individual forecasts offered to Bloomberg range from a decline of 12,000 to an increase of 30,000.
- Despite the expected increase in hiring, the unemployment rate is tipped to rise to 5.6%. The participation rate is forecast to remain steady at 64.9%.
- In the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, the RBA noted that strong gains over the past three months were “driven entirely by full-time employment” with total hours worked trending “higher as a result”. It also said that recent strength in labour market data had “removed some of the downside risk” in its forecasts for wage growth.
- In the absence of underemployment data that won’t be released until the August jobs report, it’s likely the split in full and part-time hiring, total hours worked and the unemployment rate will be used as a proxy for measuring labour market slack, a crucial cog in determining the outlook for wage pressures.
The report will be released at 11.30am AEST.
Business Insider will have all of the details and market implications as soon as the data hits the screens.