Economists think Australia's economy lost some momentum in the June quarter

  • Economists forecast that Australian economic growth likely slowed in the June quarter.
  • The median forecast looks for a quarterly increase of 0.7%, leaving the change on a year earlier at 2.8%. Year-ended growth stood at 3.1% in the March quarter. The RBA forecasts are centred around an increase of 3%.
  • A raft of additional GDP inputs arrive early next week ahead of the official GDP report on Wednesday.

Australia’s economy likely grew at a solid if not spectacular pace in the June quarter, according to preliminary forecasts offered to Bloomberg.

Of the 24 economists polled, the median forecast looks for a quarterly increase of 0.7%, down from 1% in the March quarter which was the fastest expansion since late 2011.

TD Securities is the most hawkish forecaster, predicting a quarterly rise of 1%. At the other end of the spectrum, the most pessimistic forecasts come from Capital Economics and ING Bank who are looking for an increase of just 0.5%.

Over the year, the median forecast looks for GDP to have increased 2.8%, down from 3.1% in the year to March. If correct, that would be slightly below the 3% pace the RBA forecast in its August Statement of Monetary Policy.

These preliminary estimates will be firmed up early next week following the release of balance of payments, business indicators and government spending figures from the ABS.

These can and have surprised in the past, meaning final GDP forecasts may look very different in just a few days time.

Australia’s economy has not experienced a technical recession — defined as two consecutive of negative real GDP growth — in 26.5 years. Since the GFC growth has been largely underpinned by population growth, rather than productivity improvements.

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