Monday, October 9, 2017 will not go down in the history books as an exciting session for the Australian dollar.
It did next to nothing, ambling aimlessly on the back of market holidays and a lack of market-moving catalysts.
Here’s the uninspiring scoreboard as at 7.50am AEDT.
AUD/USD 0.7752 , -0.0017 , -0.22%
AUD/JPY 87.35 , -0.16 , -0.18%
AUD/CNH 5.1277 , -0.0363 , -0.70%
AUD/EUR 0.6602 , -0.0018 , -0.27%
AUD/GBP 0.5898 , -0.0043 , -0.72%
AUD/NZD 1.0971 , 0.0007 , 0.06%
AUD/CAD 0.9729 , -0.0001 , -0.01%
Given market holidays in Japan and the United States, the AUD/USD oscillated in a thin 35 pip range during the session, initially rising before edging lower in the second half of trade.
A lack of major economic data, along with market holidays, ensured a quiet session for traders.
The one big move for the Aussie came against the UK pound following an upward revision to Q2 labour cost growth.
“The revised data supports the Bank of England’s view that UK wages are firming and reinforce expectations of a 25 basis point rate rise in November,” said Elias Haddad, senior currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank.
Haddad says the pound also benefited from reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will undertake a cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks.
Turning to the session ahead, it looks set to be another quiet day even with the return of Japanese and US traders.
On the data front, most attention domestically will be on the release of the National Australia Bank’s business confidence survey for September.
After easing noticeably in August, many will be looking to see whether the fall in business confidence will be replicated in the September report. And, if that is the case, what impact, if any, it has on perceived business conditions.
Markets will also be watching the employment subindex, as well as the reading on retail conditions, given divergence trends in other indicators in recent months.
The report will be released at 11.30am AEDT.
Before that arrives, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Australian consumer confidence index will also be released at 9.30am AEDT.
On the central bank front, RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle will also speak at 2.20pm AEDT. He’s discussing the FX Global code of conduct, so the speech is unlikely to deliver any earth-shattering news on the monetary policy front.
Outside of Australia, markets will also receive German trade data, industrial output figures from the UK, France and Italy, trade data and construction volumes from the UK, Canadian building permits and housing starts, along with NFIB Small Business Optimism and weekly API crude oil inventory data from the United States.
The IMF will also released updated global economic forecasts at midnight AEDT. The only surprise will be if the fund doesn’t upgrade its outlook for global economic growth. That has been priced in by markets long ago.
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed governor, is also scheduled to speak. He is a FOMC voter and a noted policy dove.
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