The Australian dollar did little overnight, range trading before a raft of important data releases from home and abroad.
Here’s the scoreboard as at 7.45am AEDT.
AUD/USD 0.7847 , 0.0004 , 0.05%
AUD/JPY 88.6 , 0.61 , 0.69%
AUD/CNH 5.1930 , 0.0121 , 0.23%
AUD/EUR 0.6653 , -0.0012 , -0.18%
AUD/GBP 0.5942 , -0.0003 , -0.05%
AUD/NZD 1.0963 , 0.0029 , 0.27%
The only major moves came against the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar — the former due to a rise in US treasury yields on continued speculation over the next chair of the US Federal Reserve while the Kiwi was undermined by ongoing political uncertainty and concern about the outlook for fairy prices.
It certainly wasn’t the most exciting of sessions for traders but that looks set to change with the release of Australia’s jobs report for September along with a swathe of major data prints from China, including Q3 GDP.
For the Aussie jobs report, economists are looking for an increase in employment of 15,000 with the unemployment rate tipped to remain steady at 5.6%.
It will arrive at 11.30am AEDT. This 10-second guide has more on what to look out for in the report.
90 minutes later China will release Q3 GDP along with readings on industrial output, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment for September.
GDP is expected to increase by 6.8% from a year earlier, down from 6.9% in the June quarter. Quarterly growth of 1.7% is expected in seasonally adjusted terms, unchanged from the level seen in the previous quarter.
Suggesting that there may be upside risks for the year-on-year GDP rate, it has either met or beaten the median economist forecast by 0.1% in each of the past ten GDP reports. None have come in below expectations over this period.
With China’s National People’s Congress currently underway, it will not surprise markets if GDP tops forecasts, especially with all other data points for September coming well above expectations.
Released alongside the GDP report, retail sales, industrial output and urban fixed asset investment figures will also be released.
According to Thomson Reuters, economists expect industrial output to grow by 6.2% from a year earlier, up from 6% in the year to August, while retail sales are tipped to accelerate to 10.2% from 10.1% a month earlier.
Urban fixed asset investment is forecast to have grown 7.7% between January to September compared to the same period in 2016, down marginally on the 7.8% level seen in the first eight months of the year.
“Any market volatility will come from the monthly numbers,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank.
Outside of those data releases, Japan will also release trade data for September at 10.50am AEDT. One struggles to remember a time when this release has caused even a ripple across financial markets.
Later in the session, data highlights include UK retail sales along with initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and the latest leading index from the United States.
Esther George from the US Fed is also scheduled to talk.
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