Australia: Copper Production To Slow Next Year, Global Shortage Coming


For those interested in commodities, China, and Australia’s contribution to China’s voracious commodity demand, theĀ  Australian Bureau of Agriculture And Resource Economics has some good holiday reading for you.

MineWeb: In its latest quarterly outlook, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics cut its forecast for refined copper exports by 15.8% for the year to June 30, 2010, and its estimate for refined copper output by 13 per cent to 408,000 tonnes.

“If realised, this will be the lowest refined copper production recorded in Australia since 1998-99,” it said. Australia’s Macquarie Bank predicts a global copper supply deficit is looming this year that will take two years to correct, increasing its 2010/11 copper price forecasts by 2-3% on Tuesday to $3.25-3.40/lb ($7,166-$7,500 a tonne).

The bureau also revised up iron ore exports by 2% and coking coal exports by 16.2%, citing strong demand for raw materials by Asian steelmakers.

Chinese imports of coking and thermal coal and iron ore should remain strong into 2010, underpinning higher production from Australia mines as demand shows signs of picking up in other Australian export markets, according to the bureau.


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