Later this morning the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its April Jobs report.
With Australian wages growing at the slowest pace on record, some analysts believe that a weak outcome today could lay the foundation for the Reserve Bank of Australia to follow up its May rate cut with another as soon as June.
Here’s the state of play.
- In March, employment rose by 26,100, beating expectations for an increase of 17,000. It was the largest monthly increase since November 2015.
- It left the number of employed Australians at 11.91 million, the highest level on record.
- Part-time employment rose by 34,900 to 3.7292 million, also the highest level on record, offsetting a decline in full-time employment which fell by by 8,800 to 8.1804 million.
- Both male and female employment increased during the month, rising by 16,325 and 9,748 respectively.
- Over the past 12 months, employment increased by 235,300, equating to a percentage increase of 2.01%. Although still an impressive number, it was below the recent cyclical peak of 2.94% struck in November 2015.
- On the back of the strong increase in employment and labour force participation which held steady at 64.9%, the national unemployment rate fell to 5.7%, a level not seen since September 2013.
- The total number of unemployed fell by 7,300 to 723,100 persons, the lowest number since April 2014. Over the past year, unemployment has fallen by 42,900.
- Turning to today’s release, economists expect employment growth to moderate in April.
- In a survey of 25 economists polled by Bloomberg, the median forecast is for an increase of 12,000. Forecasts range from a decline of 5,000 to an increase of 38,000, underlining just how volatile and unpredictable the ABS figures are.
- With participation tipped to remain steady at 64.9%, the national unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 5.8%.
The ABS report will be released at 11.30am AEST.
Business Insider will have full coverage as soon as the data drops.