As the post-mortems on what exactly happened to the Swans over the weekend take place throughout dealing rooms all over the country, the victory will be sweet for the Hawk’s true believers. This week the focus turns to the NRL decider with the Bulldogs playing a hot South Sydney Rabbitohs on Sunday evening.
Go the Dogs.
On the markets most of the action is going to be offshore with Australian data a little light this week.
But, given we start October on Wednesday there will be some very important global PMI’s released offshore and on Friday night, the release of the most important data point each month, US non-farm payrolls.
Westpac says the market is looking for a big bounce from last month’s weaker than expected 142,000 with 210,000 jobs expected and the unemployment rate to print 6.1%.
Locally, private sector credit on Tuesday might get a little more interest than usual given the concerns raised by the RBA over the past few weeks about investor lending. The AiG PMI on Wednesday is the local version of the global PMI avalanche which will be focussed on Chinese and European outcomes. Dwelling approvals on Thursday will fit the RBA narrative and the markets interest but otherwise the data flow is fairly quiet.
On the political front both houses of parliament are sitting this week.
We expect to hear more from Prime Minster Abbott, freshly back from the UN in New York, on ISIS and Australian troops in IRAQ after British Tornado aircraft flew their first sorties over the weekend after parliament gave the green light last week.
Also on the political front, Mathias Cormann has been on the hustings over the weekend talking about the sale of Medibank Private and the ability of members to pre-register for the float. The prospectus for the float is to be issued in October and the sale is expected to attract a lot of buying interest and a price of around $4 billion for the Government.
It could however be a little late in the cycle to get a full price if last week’s saw tooth volatility in US and local stock markets continues. Certainly the recovery on Wall Street on Friday was a welcome move in what could have been a very ugly week’s close but traders appear to be getting nervous reinforcing the import of this week’s trade and non-farm payrolls on Friday night.
Speaking of late in the cycle – the RBA’s recent conversion to both macro-prudential tools and the threat of investors has raised the ire of the Senate Economics committee. The RBA has been issued a ‘please explain letter’ and invitation to appear before the committee on Thursday. The normally somewhat dry meetings of the committee will be a must watch for markets on Thursday.
It’s a big week and the start of what is going to be a huge October for markets – the month the US Federal Reserves quantitive easing program ends.
Here is Westpac’s take on all the important economic data to be released this week.