There was a lot of focus last week on the Australian employment report, market ructions and the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
Australia’s central bank seems more concerned about the possible negative impact of a slowdown in consumption over the past three months. But this is largely based on retrospective data.
The release this week of the NAB Business Survey on Tuesday, and the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey on Wednesday, are far more important and better indicators for where the economy is headed than any one month’s employment report.
So the Business Survey and the Consumer Sentiment survey are the focus locally this week.
Politically, we’re watching the Abbott Government’s ability to control its message. Last week might be seen by some as a flat-out mess for the government; another way to look at it is that the more ineffectual ministers – particularly Brandis – have been exposed, and this will help the government in the medium-term.
At the global level, the EU releases Q2 GDP this week, coming out on Wednesday night Australian time. There’s rising antsiness about the European economy – and with the market predicting a dead-flat result for that print, be wary for a print that looks like anything negative.
Locally, it’s a big week for company results. Telstra’s results on Thursday will cap it, but a bunch of companies worth following for their performance will report in the interim. We get Domino’s (a measure of retreat or advance, depending on your lens and their product focus) on Tuesday, followed by CBA and Carsales (a great take on the economy whatever end you come at it) on Wednesday.
We get an update on the casino wars with Echo reporting on Wednesday followed by their aggressive nemesis, James Packer’s Crown, on Thursday.
If you’re into your nerdy, high-headline stocks, there’s Fairfax and Southern Cross on Thursday. Save for a massive miss on earnings for these guys, it might be good sport to watch opposing media outlets tear apart the headline figures, and see the market shrug.
Elsewhere there is not a lot of material data to be released offshore although retail sales in the US Wednesday night will be a big pointer to the US recovery.
Here is Westpac’s excellent summary of the key data to be released this week (you can click on the image to enlarge it).