BIG Plunge In Empire State Manufacturing Report

New York NYC skyline night


Oof: The empire manufacturing survey continues to be ugly, plunging from -3.76 to -7.72.

Analysts had expected a flat 0.0 report, so this a “surprise.”

This initially knocked the futures a little bit, but the pre-market is holding up well.

You can read the full release here.

Here’s the summary:

The August Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to worsen. The general business conditions index fell four points to -7.7, its third consecutive negative reading. The new orders index also remained below zero, at -7.8, while the shipments index was positive at 3.0. The unfilled orders and inventories indexes dropped further into negative territory. Price indexes continued to retreat, with the prices paid index falling fifteen points to 28.3 and the prices received index falling three points to 2.2. The index for number of employees was slightly positive, while the average workweek index was slightly negative. Future indexes weakened significantly. The future general business conditions index plummeted 20-four points to 8.7, its lowest level since February 2009, and the future new orders and shipments indexes, while positive, fell to near-record lows, exceeded only by their September 2001 readings. The capital expenditures index was also down sharply.

In a series of supplementary questions, respondents were queried about difficulties in finding workers proficient in certain types of skills; they were also asked to estimate training costs to bring new hires up to speed.  Manufacturers’ responses to the August survey were not substantially different from those recorded in March 2007, when these questions were last asked. The workers seen as most difficult to find were those with advanced computer skills, followed by those who were punctual and reliable. Training costs to bring a typical new hire up to speed were estimated at 6½ per cent of annual compensation, on average.  Firms also reported that the wage or salary of a typical worker was expected to rise by about 2½ per cent, on average, over the next twelve months.

This chart shows the unmistakable direction.


Original post: The #1 big economic release of the day: The Empire Manufacturing report.

Analysts expect a big fat 0.00, which is actually an improvement from the -3.76 reading last month.

But these kinds of regional surveys are pretty hard to predict, so who knows.

This should provide relatively fresh look at the state of (one small slice of) the economy during a period of turmoil.