Durable good orders 18.2% in August, a record decline but in-line with expectations after July’s historic increase.
Expectations were for orders to fall 18% in August, a sharp reversal after July’s record 22.6% increase in orders.
July’s 22.6% surge was largely related to a massive increase in aircraft orders.
Excluding transportation, durable good orders rose 0.7% in August, up from a -0.8% decline in July.
Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro expected that excluding transportation, durable good orders would rise 0.5% month-on-month.
In a note to clients following Thursday’s report, Shepherdson wrote, “In one line: Ignore the Boeing-shredded headline; core is solid… The headline plunge reflects the return to more normal orders numbers for Boeing after their massive July jump… What matters is the trend, and orders in the three months to August rose at a huge 17.2% annualized rate compared to the previous three months, and the y/y rate is 7.5%. We still have to be cautious about corporate capex, given sluggish earnings growth, but these numbers are hugely encouraging.”