Just a quick heads up… The first peeks we’ve gotten into Q4 have been very strong.
Granted, we’ve just got one month in the books, but…
- Manufacturing ISM was way better than expected (and the internal forward-indicators were also bullish).
- Services ISM also was robust.
- The October jobs report was much better than expected (and the revisions to August and September) were nice.
As macro data goes, these are some pretty heavy hitters, and at a minimum suggest that the beginning of the quarter has been quite strong.
So if your Q4 GDP estimate is super-bearish (see; here), you’re already in trouble.
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