More bad news for TV networks and the brands that depend on them to advertise their goods and services: The number of DVRs in U.S. homes will nearly double in the next four years, and 36% of homes will have them by 2012, according to new projections from Magna Global.
More bad news for TiVo (TIVO): The Magna numbers underscore that the company that’s synonymous with the DVR really isnt’ t anymore. As of Q4 2007, Tivo had 1.75 million subs — just 7% of the total DVR universe.
Update: Via email, Brian Wieser of Magna argues that the DVR numbers aren’t that bad for TV or advertisers. Or at least they could be much worse:
“In the context of our prior work on the topic, 36% DVR penetration isn’t anywhere near as bad as most people think – only 10% of time spent with TV inside DVR homes is off the DVR (although this rises to 20% for adults 18-49 and 30% for adults 18-49 during network prime time – with 70% of ads skipped.
“But looking at the maths in the worst case scenario, erosion among adults 18-49 during prime time would be 36% x 30% x 70% which = 8% erosion during that daypart for that demo. But over the 10 years it will have taken to get to those levels (for simplicity, assuming DVRs = 0 in 2002) total time spent and commercial exposures will have increased by well over 10% (viewing is up by more than 1% per year among most demos) AND the total population grows by about 1% per year, for another 10% top line growth. In total, the number of commercial impressions winds up +16% over that time.”