The Atlanta Fed nailed US Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter.
On Wednesday, we learned that the US economy grew by just 0.2%, far below the consensus forecast for 1% growth among economists. Of the 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, only four estimated that GDP growth would be 0.2% or lower.
The Atlanta Fed had long forecast 0.2% growth before revising it down to 0.1% after last Friday’s durable goods report.
And just a day after the disappointing Q1 GDP release, the Atlanta Fed has news about Q2: the economy will grow by just 0.9%, according to their latest forecast. Here’s what they wrote in a post on their website:
“The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.9 per cent on April 30. Real GDP grew 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, according to the “advance” estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 0.1 percentage point higher than the GDPNow model nowcast.”
Economists noted that the winter weather, West Coast port strikes and lower energy prices slowed down the economy — all temporary factors.
Still, for a sense of how bad Q2 may be, according to the Atlanta Fed, Bank of America Merril Lynch is forecasting 3.5% growth. Goldman Sachs is forecasting 3.0% growth.
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