The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model just downgraded expectations for third quarter growth in the US economy.
In a big way.
On Thursday, the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast — which takes in current economic data, and unlike most Wall Street estimates and other forecasts, doesn’t factor in future expected data and potential seasonal adjustments — sees third quarter GDP growth clocking in at 0.9%.
And while the Atlanta Fed compiles data differently than most Wall Street economists, it’s become a more popular tracking tool for folks looking at the economy after it was the only measure that called for such a disappointing start to the year.
Just a few days ago, the measure was indicating third quarter GDP growth would come in at 1.9%.
The reason for the big revision on Thursday was the advance estimate on net exports released Wednesday, with exports now expected to take 0.9% OUT of third quarter GDP after having previously been seen ADDING 0.7% to growth.
Now, as we noted on Wednesday, that drag on exports is largely related to the strength of the US dollar, which has eroded purchasing power for the US’ global partners.
US consumers, however, have enjoyed the spoils of the strong dollar — and the decline in oil prices — and what we’ve seen, then, are diverging stories for the US economy: exports and manufacturing down, consumer spending up.
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