Here's your US recession ...

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker — which has won praise for being an accurate read on economic growth ahead of the BEA’s first GDP estimate — has some bad news for the recessionistas: first quarter GDP is expected to grow at a 2.5% clip.

Following Tuesday’s wholesale inventories report, the Atlanta Fed’s tracker increased its estimate to 2.5% from 2.2% as a smaller-than-expected increase in inventories in December decreased the expected drag on growth in the coming quarter.

This, we’d note, likely brings down future revisions to fourth quarter GDP, which JPMorgan expects will bring down fourth quarter GDP to growth a paltry 0.3%.

Now, as we’ve said time and again, we can all agree that US economic growth may be underwhelming, choppy, and, frankly, disappointing.

But calls that we’re seeing an outright contraction growth are simply not based on the available data.

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