Thanks to the Atlanta Fed, you can now easily develop your own sophisticated forecasts for the U.S. jobs market.
The Jobs Calculator calculates the net employment change needed to achieve a target unemployment rate after a specified number of months. The user can adjust the target unemployment rate, the number of months, and the assumed labour force growth.
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Current Statistics (January 2012, seasonally adjusted, BLS) Civilian non-institutional population, 16yr+, (CPS, Household Survey) 242,269,000 Employment (CPS) 141,637,000 Employment (CES, Payroll Survey) 132,409,000 Number of unemployed (CPS) 12,758,000 Civilian labour force estimate (CPS) 154,395,000 Unemployment rate estimate (CPS) 8.3% labour force participation rate estimate (CPS) 63.7% Target And Time Frame Enter the target unemployment rate (as XX.X%) % Enter how many months until target unemployment rate is achieved? Results Average monthly change in Household employment (CPS) needed to achieve the target unemployment rate: 90,847 Average monthly change in Payroll employment (CES) needed to achieve the target unemployment rate: 84,928 CLICK HERE TO CHANGE THE ASSUMPTIONS The calculator also allows you to alter factors that impact the unemployment rate such as labour force participation rates and population growth. By default, the labour force participation rate is assumed to be unchanged from the current month. To specify a different labour force participation growth rate, enter that rate here (as XX.X%): % By default, the population is assumed to grow on average at the same rate as for the current month. To specify a different population growth rate, enter that monthly population growth rate here (as XX.XXXX%): % Based on the assumed labour force participation rate and monthly population growth rate, the following monthly growth rate for the labour force is implied: 0.0675%