makes an anecdotal, but important, observation from this week’s Value Investing Conference
Looking out a few years, I’m as bearish as anyone, I admit. But I’m a little worried that suckers could get caught in this gold rally. A hedge-funder I spoke with at the Value Investing Congress said half of the sessions were devoted to doomsday scenarios, precious metals, etc. Today there was a keynote from Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Mgmt. Fully 70% of his assets under management are in precious metals, silver and gold.
But he’s been in the trade for 10 years. And Einhorn built up his gold position long before it leaped past $1000.
This is certainly true based on our own observations: everyone is obsessed with gold (more on that later this morning…)
A commenter on Winkler’s blog also has a good observation, pointing out the conference’s own selection bias
I suspect the number of gold bulls at the Value Investors Conference was a function of the organisers bringing in managers with good recent performance. A couple of years ago Rich Pzena said at the VIC that Freddie Mac common was the single best investing idea that he’d ever had. I believe the stock was in the high 20’s at the time. Has Pzena ever presented at another VIC since then?
Have the organisers of VIC ever compiled a performance record of the recommendations made at their conferences? I have received emails from them promoting future conferences and notice that they highlight the best recommendations (with the aid of hindsight of course) from recent conferences and don’t mention the Freddie Macs.