Remember That Real-Time Indicator That Was Rolling Over? It's Not Anymore, It's Coming Back

Remember the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti real-time business conditions indicator maintained by the Philly Fed?

(Probably not; it’s never talked about.)

Here’s how the Philly Fed describes it (via EconBrowser):

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index’s underlying components are released.

The average value of the ADS index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average conditions, whereas progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions. The ADS index may be used to compare business conditions at different times. A value of -3.0, for example, would indicate business conditions significantly worse than at any time in either the 1990-91 or the 2001 recession, during which the ADS index never dropped below -2.0.

Anyway, last time we saw it it appeared to be rolling over… but as of March 31, that’s going away, and it’s almost back to even, providing another arrow in the optimist’s quiver.


Photo: Philly Fed

This isn’t the end of the story, obviously, and no, it’s not quite even to 0 yet, but that dip early in the year is vanishing. The bleeding has been stopped.

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