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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be wrapping up its meeting today. Fed watchers don’t expect any change in interest rate policy. But they will be looking for any change in the Fed’s language regarding the economy.Specifically, how will the Fed interpret the latest jobs data? On the headline, the data has been improving.
But some of the experts who Art Cashin has been talking to see some major issues with the current jobs data.
From today’s “Cashin’s Comments”:
The Fed, Jobs And The Election – Today’s FOMC meeting will be watched carefully. The resulting statement will see each sentence diagrammed and each word parsed. Is the Fed mollified by the recent jobs growth? Can they risk sitting on their hands? Will they not be constrained later in the year from taking action, lest they be accused of trying to influence the election? Do they have a political window here impelling them “to use it or lose it” now?
Then there is the problem of how accurate is the improving jobs picture. Yesterday, we cited Doug Kass’s interpretation and analysis that temporary jobs and low paying jobs made up almost 70% of the job growth. Similar analyses are popping up elsewhere.
Even more disturbing to us was word from a friend who subscribes to The King Report. He says the newsletter says that without the filter of seasonal adjustment, so far in 2012 nearly 1.8 million jobs have been LOST. Wow! We’ll try to check that out.