There are countless problems around the world that have us all very worried. Iran, Syria, North Korea, and Europe are just a few countries that are constantly dominated the negative headlines.But there is another extremely volatile and very violent country attached to the U.S.
Art Cashin highlights excerpts from a recent report on Mexico published by Strator.
From Thursday morning’s Cashin’s Comments. We highlighted major points in red:
Closer To Home – Stratfor has published an essay by Robert D. Kaplan on why we should pay much more attention to our next door neighbour, Mexico. We can’t cite the whole thing but here are some key thoughts:
While the foreign policy elite in Washington focuses on the 8,000 deaths in a conflict in Syria — half a world away from the United States — more than 47,000 people have died in drug-related violence since 2006 in Mexico. A deeply troubled state as well as a demographic and economic giant on the United States’ southern border, Mexico will affect America’s destiny in coming decades more than any state or combination of states in the Middle East. Indeed, Mexico may constitute the world’s seventh-largest economy in the near future…
Since 1940, Mexico’s population has increased more than five-fold. Between 1970 and 1995 it nearly doubled. Between 1985 and 2000 it rose by more than a third. Mexico’s population is now more than a third that of the United States and growing at a faster rate. And it is northern Mexico that is crucial. That most of the drug-related homicides in this current wave of violence that so much dwarfs Syria’s have occurred in only six of Mexico’s 32 states, mostly in the north, is a key indicator of how northern Mexico is being distinguished from the rest of the country (though the violence in the city of Veracruz and the regions of Michoacán and Guerrero is also notable). If the military-led offensive to crush the drug cartels launched by conservative President Felipe Calderon falters, as it seems to be doing, and Mexico City goes back to cutting deals with the cartels, then the capital may in a functional sense lose even further control of the north, with concrete implications for the southwestern United States…
Today, helping to thwart drug cartels in rugged and remote terrain in the vicinity of the Mexican frontier and reaching southward from Ciudad Juarez (across the border from El Paso, Texas) means a limited role for the U.S. military and other agencies — working, of course, in full cooperation with the Mexican authorities. (Predator and Global Hawk drones fly deep over Mexico searching for drug production facilities.) But the legal framework for cooperation with Mexico remains problematic in some cases because of strict interpretation of 19th century posse comitatus laws on the U.S. side. While the United States has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to affect historical outcomes in Eurasia, its leaders and foreign policy mandarins are somewhat passive about what is happening to a country with which the United States shares a long land border, that verges on partial chaos in some of its northern sections, and whose population is close to double that of Iraq and Afghanistan combined…
Anyway, it’s a thoughtful essay. If you can access it, read the whole thing.