Nobody really knows why, but the U.S. stock markets stay closed for Good Friday. So, today’s the end of a shortened trading week.
How are stocks going to close?
Stocks are slightly in the red with just over an hour remaining in the trading day.
In today’s Cashin’s Comments, Art Cashin presents the historical stats.
Be warned: history isn’t a great guide.
But if you’re curious, here’s what Cashin has to say.
Looking For Clues In The Calendar – Traders are always looking for seasonal or holiday patterns to give them a bit of an edge. Some are big and famous like – “Sell in May and go away”. Others are more obscure and arcane. There’s a pattern for the day before Good Friday. There’s another for the day before the Non-Farm Payroll numbers in April. Here’s a look at those two patterns (which collide tomorrow) courtesy of the sharp-eyed Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader:
Seasonality is at least moderately positive for the coming days. The day before Good Friday has been positive nearly 70% of the time in the S&P 500 since 1950. The day before the April release of the Nonfarm Payroll report was up 73% of the time. There was a modest negative bias the day after Good Friday, but not so the April payroll report. That Monday was positive 12 of the last 15 years (the rest of the week was modestly weak).