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Bonds have been in a monster bull market for decades.This has plenty of people believing that interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
However, we have yet to see a sustained upward move in interest rates, which would signal the end of the bond bull market.
Eric King of King World News spoke with UBS’s Art Cashin to see when he thought the bull market would end:
Eric King: “With the Fed increasing QE, and all of this money printing around the world, Art, what type of effects will we see in 2013?”
Cashin: “Well, there are a couple of things to look at. For example, we are beginning to see rates move up. Some of that was based on the FOMC minutes. The thing that I will watch for is mortgage applications. If the public begins to believe that the trend in rates has turned, that rates are heading higher, I believe you may begin to see a stampede of people trying to lock up those low mortgage rates.
That will be a signal to me that the public is coming to believe that the great bond bull market is probably ending. It will mean money coming out of bond funds. So one of the key things I will be monitoring very carefully over the next month or two, is there new or explosive growth in mortgage applications?
Perhaps this is more good news than bad as rising borrowing costs would be at least partially offset by the economic activity triggered in the housing market.
Read more at KingWorldNews.com.