For some odd reason, even though it is by now very, very clear that the world is back in a depressionary state, some are still fascinated by the inflection point of the global economy, and wonder: “are we headed for a recession?” (which obviously is the wrong question).
Anyway, to help with the answer is this set of 9 interactive charts from Reuters which should remove any last bit of doubt as to what is about to unfold, at least in the perception of conventional wisdom.
Furthermore, since most of these data sets are coincident or lagging, it is safe to say that the NBER will shortly announce that the recession started some time in H1.
1. US PMIs
2. Philly Fed and Chicago PMI
3. Euro-zone & China PMI
4. OECD Leading Indicator
5. ECRI Weekly Indicator
6. Initial Jobless Claims
7. Payrolls and Recessions
8. Velocity of M1 Money Stock
9. Consumer Confidence
No additional colour needed but it is perhaps comically notable that, with another short squeeze driving stocks up almost 7.5% from the lows on Friday, long-only equity strategists start re-emerging from their bunkers calling for 10, 20, 30% moves into year-end – does it ever get old?
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