This will be the last post of the day we write about the InTrade health care reform contract, but we introduce one additional angle on this story.The theory has been raised — most directly to us by Twitter user @fleckman — that the surge does not represent the view of insiders (that it’s going to pass) but rather it represents an attempt on the part of DC insiders to bid up the market and create a sense of inevitability.
There’s some logic to it: the contract goes up, we write about it, Krugman writes about it, and suddenly everyone agrees that it has momentum.
But, is InTrade really influential enough to frome the debate? Maybe not generally, but here’s how a Washington DC observer explained it to us:
Nancy Pelosi goes to Joe Freshman, D-Wherever, says, this bill is going to pass, you are going to get blamed for it because you voted for it last time. It’s not like you can beat it and make it go away, because it is going to pass. You vote nay, you get blamed, I give you nothing. You vote Yeah, it passes by 4 votes, you weren’t the deciding vote, you also get pork on which to run.
Or, if that’s too strong:
can Nancy Pelosi convince Joe Freshman that inTrade matters? seems unlikely to me but if PhRMA is considering bailing (they did fire Tauzin, after all), inTrade might keep more lobbyists in line
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