At 9:00 PM ET, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will publish its April manufacturing PMI report.

Economists expect this number to slip to 50.7, down from 50.9 in March.

Earlier this month, we got a preliminary reading of HSBC’s unofficial PMI, which unexpectedly fell to 50.5 from 51.6 in March.

Any reading above 50 signals expansion.

Some, like Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu, are more optimistic.  From Lu’s note:

The NBS Manufacturing PMI could pick up to 51.0 in April from 50.9 in March. We are seeing some sequential improvement, albeit modest, in economic activities in April. Although the HSBC flash PMI came in weaker-than-expected, the official PMI might do better due to the difference in sampling between these two PMIs. Note that the HSBC PMI tends to lean towards SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) and the export sector. Meanwhile, industrial production (IP) growth may rebound to 9.5% yoy in April from 8.9% in March. The yoy growth of daily power production so far in April was 8.7%, compared to 2.1% in March.

We’ll cover the release live right here.

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