This One Indicator Says The Next Jobs Report Will Be Another Home Run

Wow. April is almost over, and that means we’re ready to start talking about the next jobs report.

It will be a while before we have our official forecast, but Ben White at Morning Money has published the latest from Jack Ablin at Harris Private Bank, who is really fond of comparing Non-Farm Payrolls with the employment sub-index of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Report.

That number came in strong yesterday, and so Ablin sees an April NFP number of 216K, which would be a nice jump from March.

Here’s a scatterplot comparing NFP and the employment sub-index.

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