The official April U.S. jobs report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET today.
Here’s a rundown of the expectations according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg:
- Nonfarm payrolls: +218,000
- Private payrolls: +215,000
- Unemployment Rate: 6.6%
- Avg Hourly Earnings: 0.2% mum, 2.1% YoY
- Avg Weekly Hours: 34.5
The improving weather is the big story.
“We think the return to better weather in April will unleash some pent-up hiring, but we don’t see a strong weather-related bounce,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists, who expect NFP to increase by 215,000.
“Among the components, we think the risk is that construction hiring disappoints given sluggish housing starts in March and low homebuilder sentiment in early April. Moreover, after revisions, it appears that construction job growth was fairly robust over the prior three months, following the decline in December. Job growth in manufacturing and the retail sector should increase given the pickup in production and sales.”
Economists will also be keeping a close eye on hourly earnings for any sign that suggests wage growth will heat up.
“Earnings have been subdued and relatively stable for a while, and have not been a major market focus,” said Credit Suisse economists. “This could change as the unemployment rate grinds lower and the degree of labour market slack becomes a hotter topic of debate.”
Estimates for NFP range from 150,000 to 292,000. Economists on the high end of that range emphasise the low jobless claims number during the BLS’s jobs report survey period. Here’s some of what market economists are saying:
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