Interested in reading the tea leaves on Apple’s performance? Then this morning’s report from Ticonderoga analyst Brian White will be perfect for you.
White has an “Apple Barometer” which is comprised of “a broad basket” of Taiwanese tech suppliers “with a high concentration of sales generated from Apple.” He uses this index to track Apple sales, and thinks it’s better than tracking a single supplier like Hon Hai Precision, which gets 75% of its sales from non-Apple companies.
According to White’s Apple Barometer, sales fell 8% in April as compared to March. April sales have been up by 0.4% on average as measured by a month over month basis, in the last six years.
White cautions that the Apple Barometer showed an unusually strong increase in sales for March, so the dip in April doesn’t mean Apple can’t deliver strong Q2 growth overall. But he also says Apple provided guidance suggesting sales would be down 7% sequentially for Q2, which is atypical since it normally has sales up 5% sequentially. (Apple tends to sandbag its estimates, so it’s hard to know what to make of that guidance.)
On a year over year basis, sales for April were up 113% for Apple suppliers. But that’s weak compared to March when sales were up 141% on a year over year basis.