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Apple will sell 9 million iPhones on Verizon next year, predicts Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster this morning.He admits his estimate is conservative. He even hints that Apple could sell closer to 20 million iPhones at Verizon next year.
How does he hint that? He says the iPhone accounted for 80% of all smartphone sales at AT&T in Q3. AT&T now has a broad lineup of smartphones from Android, RIM, and others, but the iPhone was still the most popular by far.
Munster thinks Verizon will activate 25 million smartphones next year. His estimate of 9 million would only represent 36% of all activations for the year.
If Apple can be as popular at Verizon as it is at AT&T, owning 80% of sales, it could actually sell 20 million iPhones.
The problem with these predictions is Munster doesn’t know when the iPhone will hit Verizon. If it’s available January 1st, then Apple could arguably sell 15-20 million. If it doesn’t come out until the middle of the year, then 9 million seems reasonable.
Basically, the iPhone Verizon sales come down to how bullish you are about the iPhone’s prospects against other smartphones and timing.
Yesterday we ran through the numbers and arrived at our own estimate of 10 million, which is $6 billion or more in incremental revenue for Apple.
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