Apple’s silver lining today: iPhone 3G sales may still be exceeding expectations. In an otherwise gloomy research note, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky estimates that Apple shipped 6 million iPhones in the quarter that ended Sept. 27, citing “checks.” That’s up from his previous estimate of 5 million and is also higher than every Wall Street estimate we’ve seen so far, including 5 million from both Morgan Stanley and Piper Jaffray. How’d Abramsky get to 6 million?
- 900,000 upgrades; 15% of its 6 million install base of first-gen iPhones
- 388,000 sell-in (6 weeks inventory) in the 20 latest countries to sell iPhones
- 280,000 sell-in for Best Buy (BBY) — also six weeks inventory
- 4.43 million sell-through in the first 22 iPhone countries, including 1.7 million in the U.S.
Abramsky still expects Apple to ship 14 million iPhones this calendar year — but that only accounts for 5.6 million unit shipments during the holiday quarter, so we think that could go up. He also expects Apple to sell 24 million next year.
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