Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley Says iPhone Demand Is Off The Charts

tim cookl

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Apple’s stock has been crushed since the end of September when it closed above $700 for the first time ever.On Friday it closed at $509.79, a new low in this slump.

As Apple’s stock has fallen, analysts have slowly started dialling back expectations. Jefferies, UBS, and tonight, Citi, all cut their price targets on the stock.

All three are cutting for basically the same reason — Asian suppliers say Apple cut its orders for the iPhone 5 in the first quarter of the year. This suggests demand for the iPhone is not fantastic, though it’s probably still good. The other reason is that the iPad Mini is eating into sales of the full sized iPad.

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is out with a note knocking down both of those theories. Here’s the key takeaways from her note:

  • There is “strong demand” for the iPhone 5. “Importantly, a greater percentage of consumers plan to purchase the higher priced iPhone 5 as compared to iPhone 4S mix a year ago. As a result, we see potential upside to both our 50M unit (+35% Y/Y) and $642 (-4%) ASP assumptions in C4Q.”
  • The iPad is doing better than you think against the iPad Mini. “40-seven per cent of iPad mini purchases are to new customers, only slightly lower than the 56% for iPad 9.7″ suggesting cannibalization risk is manageable.”
  • Apple is “holding its own against Samsung.” Samsung’s success isn’t coming at the expense of Apple, rather at expanse of other Android phone makers.

Of all of these, the most shocking is the idea of beating 50 million iPhones sold this quarter. If Apple hits 50 million or above, it will silence many of the sceptics.

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